Turning Crisis into Opportunity: How Gilgit‑Baltistan Can Lead Pakistan’s Path to Resilience in a Polycrisis World
Abstract
“Polycrisis” refers to the simultaneous convergence of threats that undermine human well-being, political stability, economic security, ecological integrity, and technological progress. This article examines how these global challenges manifest locally in Gilgit‑Baltistan, Pakistan, with a specific focus on Hunza and Sost as illustrative case studies. While the region faces environmental stress, geopolitical instability, economic volatility, constitutional ambiguity, youth migration, and the digital divide, it also holds transformative potential. Drawing on recent academic studies and policy analyses, this paper argues that inclusive governance, climate-resilient infrastructure, digital investment, and youth-led innovation can position Gilgit‑Baltistan as a resilient and equitable development model. The article concludes by outlining four guiding principles to convert crisis into opportunity.
Introduction: A World in Polycrisis
In policy and academic discourse, the term polycrisis captures the current era's overlapping global disruptions—climate change, geopolitical instability, economic fragmentation, governance failures, and rapid AI-driven transformation—that interact and magnify one another (ForumIAS, 2023). These crises are global in origin but are felt most intensely at local and regional levels. Gilgit‑Baltistan, located at Pakistan’s northern periphery, is especially vulnerable. Nestled in a high-altitude, environmentally fragile zone and situated at a geopolitical crossroads, the region faces profound existential threats. However, with its youthful population, cultural wealth, biodiversity, and strategic location, Gilgit‑Baltistan has the potential to lead Pakistan’s adaptation to the polycrisis era through innovative and community-driven development models.
Environmental Change: Regional Risk, Local Leadership
Gilgit‑Baltistan's high-mountain ecosystems are rapidly degrading due to climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2023a) reports that global temperatures have already surpassed the critical 1.5°C threshold, resulting in glacier retreat, irregular rainfall, soil erosion, and water scarcity—especially affecting farming and tourism in regions like Hunza. Yet, this fragility offers an opportunity for leadership. Investment in glacier-monitoring systems, early warning infrastructure, renewable energy, and community-based adaptation can help Gilgit‑Baltistan become a global case study in mountain resilience. Localized efforts in Hunza are already proving effective. Scaling these initiatives region-wide with participatory governance can turn vulnerability into resilience (IPCC, 2023b).
Geopolitical Tensions and Trade: Sost as a Strategic Node
South and Central Asia’s trade routes are being reshaped by global power shifts, notably among China, the U.S., and Russia. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), once seen as a transformative project, has slowed, leaving trade hubs like Sost in economic stagnation. However, Sost’s location remains critical. Revitalizing the Sost Dry Port, improving customs infrastructure, and integrating with emerging regional trade frameworks can reassert Gilgit‑Baltistan’s role as a trade gateway. Furthermore, supporting SMEs in agriculture, crafts, and eco-tourism, especially in Hunza, can stimulate local economic growth even as broader geopolitical uncertainties persist.
Economic Instability and Local Self‑Reliance
Pakistan’s ongoing economic challenges—devaluation, inflation, and debt—have disproportionately affected remote regions like Gilgit‑Baltistan. Yet, local resilience offers a viable path forward. The region’s diverse ecology and cultural heritage can form the foundation of a localized economy rooted in sustainable agriculture, traditional crafts, and tourism. Hunza’s entrepreneurial ecosystem provides a promising model. These microeconomies can be scaled and supported via digital platforms, connecting producers to national and international markets and reducing reliance on centralized economic policies that often neglect peripheral regions.
Governance Ambiguity: A Window for Reform
Gilgit‑Baltistan’s unresolved constitutional status remains a major structural impediment. Without full provincial recognition, the region lacks legislative power, equitable funding, and political representation. However, this ambiguity also presents a chance for meaningful institutional reform. Constitutional integration, increased autonomy, and enhanced representation in national governance can enable the region to develop tailored, context-sensitive solutions. This underscores the imperative to extend full constitutional rights to the people of Gilgit-Baltistan, ensuring they are no longer treated as second-class citizens in their own country. True development, justice, and national unity can only be achieved when all regions are empowered equally under the Constitution.
Youth Leadership and Digital Mobilization
Despite limited infrastructure and high rates of out-migration, Gilgit‑Baltistan’s youth are digitally literate and civically engaged. Through social media platforms such as YouTube and Facebook, young people are raising political awareness, promoting environmental advocacy, and fostering communal solidarity. Capitalizing on this momentum requires investments in civic education, digital literacy, and reliable internet infrastructure. Initiatives already underway in Hunza demonstrate the potential of youth-led governance models. Expanding these across the region could promote inclusive, transparent, and tech-enabled local leadership.
Artificial Intelligence and the Digital Frontier
As artificial intelligence reshapes economies and labor markets globally, Gilgit‑Baltistan risks being left behind due to infrastructure gaps, low technical capacity, and unclear policy frameworks (Lipcsey, 2024). Closing this digital divide will require coordinated investment in AI literacy programs, tech incubation centers, university partnerships, and broadband expansion. Remote districts like Hunza can become part of the digital economy, provided they are given the tools to compete. Government, civil society, and academia must collaborate to ensure equitable digital inclusion, laying the foundation for future-ready local economies (Hussain & Rizwan, 2024).
Conclusion: Guiding Principles for Transformative Resilience
The polycrisis era, while daunting, presents an extraordinary opportunity to reimagine development models. Gilgit‑Baltistan—marked by both vulnerability and potential—can lead the way if guided by four key principles:
1. Just Climate Action: Policies must be evidence-based, transparent, and centered on justice for vulnerable mountain communities.
2. Economic Self-Reliance: Development must prioritize indigenous knowledge, sustainable practices, and local value chains.
3. Democratic Participation: Communities must be empowered through inclusive and decentralized governance.
4. Digital Equity: Universal access to internet and AI literacy is essential to prevent technological exclusion.
By embracing these principles, Gilgit‑Baltistan—with Hunza and Sost at the forefront—can serve as a beacon of resilient, inclusive development in Pakistan and beyond.
References
Das, D., Bapat, J., Katsenou, A., & Shrestha, S. (2025). Connectivity for AI-enabled cities: A field survey-based study of emerging economies. arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.01578
ForumIAS. (2023). The concept of polycrisis and global challenges. ForumIAS Blog. https://blog.forumias.com/the-concept-of-polycrisis-and-global-challenges/
Hussain, A., & Rizwan, R. (2024). The case for an industrial policy approach to AI sector of Pakistan for growth and autonomy. arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.01145
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2023a). Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-synthesis-report/
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2023b). AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/
Lipcsey, R. A. (2024). AI diffusion to low-middle income countries: A blessing or a curse? arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.02231
Constitutional integration, increased autonomy, and enhanced representation in national governance can enable the region to develop tailored, context-sensitive solutions. Can't agree more.....
ReplyDeleteThank you Zahid Hussain Sb for your thoughtful feedback. I appreciate your bird’s-eye view on the topic. I've modified that part accordingly-much appreciated🙏
DeleteDear Sir, the role of private sector organizations and public private partnership approach may also remain helpful. Overall, it is a wonderful read.
ReplyDeleteThanks dear for your encouraging comments. Yes you are true and that segment can also play pivtal role on the above theme🙏❤️
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